Key Findings
26,758
RSI Overbought Signals
74.8%
7D Drop Rate
-12.9%
7D Avg Return
82.1%
RSI 90+ Drop Rate
RSI (Relative Strength Index) is one of the most widely used technical indicators. An RSI reading above 70-80 is interpreted as “overbought,” suggesting an imminent price decline. We tested this interpretation against 26,758 real signals.
Time favors the short side. After an RSI overbought signal, the drop rate increases consistently from 54.4% → 74.8% as time passes.
Overbought Signal Performance
| Time Elapsed | Drop Rate | Avg Return |
|---|---|---|
| After 1H | 54.4% | -1.2% |
| After 4H | 58.1% | -3.1% |
| After 1D | 64.6% | -6.8% |
| After 3D | 70.1% | -9.4% |
| After 7D | 74.8% | -12.9% |
Analysis by RSI Level
Higher RSI readings correlate with higher drop probability:
| RSI Range | 7D Drop Rate | Avg Return |
|---|---|---|
| 70-80 | 68.3% | -7.2% |
| 80-90 | 74.8% | -12.9% |
| 90+ | 82.1% | -18.5% |
RSI 90+ represents extreme overbought territory — 82.1% dropped within 7 days. When RSI reaches this level, it’s a near-certain mean-reversion opportunity.
This is not trading advice. We are sharing patterns revealed by data. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Data Source: coinugget.com/stats — 15min candle RSI signal tracking in real time
Period: June–July 2026 | Sample: 26,758 RSI overbought signals | Updated: 2026-07-21
Period: June–July 2026 | Sample: 26,758 RSI overbought signals | Updated: 2026-07-21