Bot Strategy Metrics
83.2%
4-Condition Drop Rate
RSI 85+
Overbought Threshold
2%
Risk Per Trade
+15%
Stop Loss Level
We’re building an automated trading bot based on coinugget.com/stats data. In this series, we share the statistical foundation behind the bot’s core strategy: mean-reversion short.
The average 7-day return of 4,342 surge coins is -11.1%. This is strong evidence that surge coins statistically “revert to the mean” — and systematically exploiting this pattern is the bot’s core idea.
Entry Conditions
Optimized entry conditions based on backtesting:
| Condition | Threshold | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| RSI (15min) | 85+ | Overbought signal: 74.8% drop rate |
| BB Upper Gap | +20%+ | Upper band break → mean reversion |
| EMA Alignment (4H) | Downtrend | Align with higher timeframe trend |
| Surge Size | 20%+ | Larger surge = larger decline |
When all 4 conditions are met, the 7-day drop probability is 83.2%. The combination significantly outperforms individual conditions.
Risk Management
Position Sizing
2% of total capital risked per trade. Even 10 consecutive losses only result in 18.3% total drawdown.
Stop Loss & Take Profit
| Level | Target | Allocation |
|---|---|---|
| TP 1 | -5% | 50% of position |
| TP 2 | -10% | 30% of position |
| Remainder | Trailing stop | 20% of position |
This is not trading advice. We are sharing our bot development process. Always conduct your own due diligence before live trading.
Data Source: coinugget.com/stats — Real-time signal performance tracking across Binance, Bybit, Gate.io, MEXC
Series: Auto-Trading Bot Dev Log #1 | Next: #2 — Backtest Results & Live Simulation
Series: Auto-Trading Bot Dev Log #1 | Next: #2 — Backtest Results & Live Simulation