Key Findings
25,612
Breakout Signals
77.5%
7D Drop Rate
-16.3%
7D Avg Return
15min
Candle Timeframe
“Buy the breakout” is one of the most common trading strategies. When price breaks above resistance, enter long. But after tracking 25,612 breakout signals, the data tells a very different story.
77.5% of breakouts failed within 7 days. Breakouts aren’t entry signals — they’re exit liquidity.
25,612 Breakout Signals Tracked
We tracked every breakout signal on 15-minute candles. The failure rate increased consistently over time:
| Time Elapsed | Drop Rate | Avg Return |
|---|---|---|
| After 1H | 52.1% | -0.8% |
| After 4H | 59.3% | -3.2% |
| After 1D | 68.7% | -8.1% |
| After 7D | 77.5% | -16.3% |
Why Breakouts Fail
In the current market environment, most breakouts are temporary liquidity exhaustion events. Large players use buy orders stacked above resistance levels to offload their positions.
The data shows that mean-reversion strategies — betting on pullbacks after breakouts — have a statistical edge. This pattern is strongest in coins with RSI above 80 and EMA in downtrend.
This is not trading advice. We are sharing patterns revealed by data. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Data Source: coinugget.com/stats — Real-time signal performance tracking across Binance, Bybit, Gate.io, MEXC
Period: June–July 2026 | Sample: 25,612 breakout signals | Updated: 2026-07-19
Period: June–July 2026 | Sample: 25,612 breakout signals | Updated: 2026-07-19